FEATURED ASSESSMENTYEMEN'S PATH TO A FROZEN CONFLICTYemen's warring parties have agreed to another extension of a now four-month-old ceasefire — opening the door, ever so slightly, to the possibility of at least freezing the war-torn country's seven-year conflict. The factors compelling the Yemeni government and Houthi rebels to continue prolonging their truce — namely, waning foreign support, fuel and food insecurity, and the lack of a clear way for either side to achieve their military objectives — are unlikely to change anytime soon. But even if this results in a sustained period of reduced fighting, real and lasting peace in Yemen — while not impossible — remains improbable. And that's because a frozen Yemeni war would likely resemble the unstable conflicts in Gaza and Syria, where periods of violence alternate with long swathes of relative calm.Why Yemen's War Is SlowingSo long as the Houthis and the Yemeni government both claimed the right to govern the entire country, the war seemed destined to grind on. But that began to change earlier this year.On Aug. 2, they agreed to a third extension to the cease-fire, marking the longest pause in fighting Yemen has seen in the sevenyear conflict.So what changed? Neither the Houthis nor the Yemeni government have begun peace talks or abandoned their wartime goals. Rather, it appears the global shocks brought on by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February convinced both sides that they needed to focus on keeping humanitarian lifelines open in Yemen, at least for the time being.Yemen would not be the first regional conflict to cool without seriously addressing the drivers of war. In Gaza, Israeli forces and Palestinian militants have an unsteady, adversarial relationship, and are certainly no closer to peace than the Houthis and the Yemeni government. But they have a similar dynamic.If the current cease-fire becomes an excuse for powers like Saudi Arabia and the United States already trying to leave Yemen to disengage before a peace deal is struck, future battles could result in Houthi victories by leaving the Yemeni government with less support. Such victories might leave the rebel group in charge of not only strategic cities like Marib and Taiz, but perhaps even pushing further south towards Aden. That would weaken, perhaps fatally so, the fragile Yemeni government, and allow radical extremists the space to recruit and organize in the instability that would follow. If the Houthis appear to be gaining the upper hand on the battlefield, the powers that looked to extricate themselves from the war — namely, the Saudis and Americans — might be forced to retake the frontlines, leaving Yemen lodged in yet another cycle of violence with devastating humanitarian costs. in fighting Yemen has seen in the sevenyear conflict.So what changed? Neither the Houthis nor the Yemeni government have begun peace talks or abandoned their wartime goals. Rather, it appears the global shocks brought on by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February convinced both sides that they needed to focus on keeping humanitarian lifelines open in Yemen, at least for the time being.Yemen would not be the first regional conflict to cool without seriously addressing the drivers of war. In Gaza, Israeli forces and Palestinian militants have an unsteady, adversarial relationship, and are certainly no closer to peace than the Houthis and the Yemeni government. But they have a similar dynamic.If the current cease-fire becomes an excuse for powers like Saudi Arabia and the United States already trying to leave Yemen to disengage before a peace deal is struck, future battles could result in Houthi victories by leaving the Yemeni government with less support. Such victories might leave the rebel group in charge of not only strategic cities like Marib and Taiz, but perhaps even pushing further south towards Aden. That would weaken, perhaps fatally so, the fragile Yemeni government, and allow radical extremists the space to recruit and organize in the instability that would follow. If the Houthis appear to be gaining the upper hand on the battlefield, the powers that looked to extricate themselves from the war — namely, the Saudis and Americans — might be forced to retake the frontlines, leaving Yemen lodged in yet another cycle of violence with devastating humanitarian costs.