GLOBAL SITUATION REPORTANALYSISEach issue our global geopolitical partner, Stratfor, provides an indepth analysis of global incidents via in-house experts, cutting edge technology and through a comprehensive globally sourced network. Here is your summary from the last 30 days.Global:
OPEC+ Agrees to Accelerate Production Amid Sanctions on Russian Oil
OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August, an increase of 216,000 b/d each month beyond what OPEC+ had previously plannedWhy It Matters: While the OPEC+ agreement accelerates the bloc's already planned production increases, it may not lower oil prices to the White House's preferred level, nor will its subsequent increases replace Russian oil. This is because top line cuts may not materialize because most non-Per sian Gulf oil producer s in OPEC+ are already str uggling to hit their quotas. South Korea, China:
Beijing's Missile Defense Demands Strain Relationship With Seoul
China announced that South Korea should abide by the unofficial statements of the previous president regarding missile defense and security, and Beijing also called for Seoul to restrict the use of existing Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) batteriesWhy It Matters: China will continue pressing the THAAD issue, but South Korea's Yoon administration is extremely unlikely to bend to the pressure. This means that relations between the two nations will sour fur ther, elevating the risk of economic retaliation by Beijing. Kosovo, Serbia:Talk of Possible Serbian Attack Flares Tensions Ahead of Meeting Kosovo will push ahead with its promise to force Serbs living in nor thern Kosovo (who do not recognize Kosovo's sovereignty) to star t using license plates issued by Kosovar authorities and have vowed to stand up against any Serbian retaliation.Why It Matters: Kur ti's decision to openly mention a possible new conflict with Serbia is most likely intended to showcase strength. Violence is unlikely since both Serbia and Kosovo wish to become EU member s and given the presence of NATO troops in nor th Kosovo. Mali, Russia: Moscow Considers Sending Fuel, Food Supplies Following Delivery of Fighter Jets Plans are being made for Russia to supply Mali with fuel, food and fer tilizers. This comes after Russia delivered fighter jets to Mali.Why It Matters: The fighter jets and helicopter s delivered by Russia will provide a much-needed boost to Mali's Air Force, which could help reduce the movement of jihadist groups in the countr y in the wake of the end of French air suppor t. However, jihadist groups will likely continue to gain ground, albeit at a slightly slower pace. More broadly, the move demonstrates the junta's growing reliance on Moscow, slowly turning Bamako into a committed Russian ally. Ukraine, Russia:
Explosions at Crimean Airfield Indicate Likely Ukrainian Attack
A series of explosions occurred at Russia's Saki militar y airfield in the village of Novofedorivka on the southwestern coast of Crimea in an apparent attack by Ukrainian forcesWhy It Matters: The attack demonstrates Ukraine's ability to strike at greater distances than previously known, as the airfield is located beyond the range of standard ammunition for the U.S. High Mobility Ar tiller y Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and the United States has not acknowledged giving Ukraine long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) rockets. It appear s most likely that Ukraine modified its Neptune anti-ship missiles for ground attack and flew them over the Black Sea to avoid Russian anti-air defenses. Mexico:
President Seeks to Militarize National Guard
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador announced that he intends to issue a reform proposal to place the National Guard, which is currently a civilian body, under the control of the defense secretar y.Why It Matters: In the unlikely event that the National Guard is placed under militar y control, the body would likely receive formal militar y training and equipment, as well as face special militar y trials instead of har sher civilian ones, potentially exacerbating clashes between civilians and the police force. Ukraine, Russia:
Infrastructure at Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant Damaged
Ukraine's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Russian attacks on the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant had hit the storage area for spent nuclear fuel and damaged three radiation-monitoring sensor s around the siteWhy It Matters: Continued damage to the facility's infrastr ucture could result in a radiological incident. Both Russia and Ukraine have reasons to keep the power plant functioning and to avoid such a radiological leakage, which would take place in an area that Russia likely is seeking to annex. But attacks on the facility are likely to continue because Russian forces are using the facility as a shield behind which to garrison troops and conduct attacks on Ukraine. Afghanistan:
Anti-U.S. Protests Occur in Multiple Provinces After alZawahiri Strike
Hundreds of Afghans in at least seven provinces engaged in anti-U.S. demonstrations days after the United States conducted a targeted strike that killed al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in downtown Kabul. Repor ts indicate that the Taliban has organized at least some of these protests and compelled at least some people to take par t.Why It Matters: The protests suggest some success in the Taliban's effor ts to deflect domestic criticism of its apparent hosting of al-Zawahiri by claiming ignorance and sowing doubt about his presence while highlighting the United States' violation of Afghan sovereignty.