Global Situation Report

Each issue our global geopolitical partner, Stratfor, provides an in-depth analysis of global incidents via in-house experts, cutting edge technology and through a comprehensive globally sourced network. Here is your summary from the last 30 days.

ANALYSIS

Ethiopia:

Opposition Party Calls for Peace Plan as Conflict Heats Up

Ethiopia's opposition Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) party on Dec. 8 called for the international community to pressure the federal government to pursue a peaceful and political resolution to the ongoing armed conflict in the Oromia region.

Why It Matters: The OFC's statement highlights the ongoing violence in Oromia that is likely to worsen in the coming months. Clashes and attacks carried out by Amhara militias in Oromia could escalate into larger ethnic clashes reminiscent of those that took place over the summer in the Oromia and Amhara regions. Additionally, worsening violence in Oromia will continue to fuel political instability in the country.

Pakistan:

Afghan Taliban's First Test to Keep Critical Projects Secure

Pakistan is preparing to source liquified natural gas (LNG) from Turkmenistan by land via Afghanistan.

Why It Matters: The planned route will be the first major regional connectivity project to test the Afghan Taliban's ability to keep critical projects secure. Apart from threats from Islamic State militants in Afghanistan, border conflicts between Afghanistan and Pakistan will threaten the project's implementation.

Ukraine:

Half of Ukraine's Critical Electricity Infrastructure Damaged

According to Ukraine's Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, around 50% of Ukraine's critical electricity infrastructure has been damaged and some has been totally destroyed.

Why It Matters: Russia's campaign against Ukraine's civilian infrastructure will lead to an increasingly dire humanitarian situation as colder temperatures sweep the country, which will likely prompt more Ukrainians to flee westward toward the European Union. However, the campaign remains unlikely to change Ukraine's stance in the war, despite claims from Russian officials to the contrary. Even so, the damage caused by the strikes will increase the cost of stabilizing Ukraine's economy and helping the country rebuild, which Russia hopes will fuel war fatigue in the West.

Uzbekistan:

Tashkent Skeptical of Russia's 'Tripartite Gas Union' Proposal

Uzbekistan's energy minister responded to a Russian proposal for a "gas union" including Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Russia by saying the government would not agree to any political conditions that would jeopardize its national interests.

Why It Matters: Uzbekistan's skepticism toward the idea is in line with Kazakhstan's and reflects Central Asian states' fear that Moscow could use any increased economic dependence on Russia to secure political concessions. This fear has grown following Russia's use of natural gas supplies in energy blackmail attempts against European states in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

SNAPSHOTS

Peru

Less than two years after taking office, Peru's president has been impeached and detained by authorities after he tried to dissolve Congress ahead of a scheduled vote to oust him.

China

New COVID-19 management measures significantly ease burdens on individuals and businesses, boosting economic prospects and stemming the immediate risk of renewed lockdowns and protests, though they could reemerge over the next year.

South Africa

The governing African National Congress (ANC) told party members to reject a South African advisory panel's findings that President Ramaphosa — once lauded as the ''anti-corruption president — may have violated the constitution at an upcoming parliamentary vote.

The United Kingdom’s Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish regional parliament does not have the authority to pass a bill organizing an independence referendum in Scotland.

Libya

Eastern Mediterranean countries will seek to exploit Libya's internal disputes to further their own causes, ultimately complicating political unification in Libya and potentially triggering more oil blockades in the future.

Israel

Israel will increase civilian and intelligence aid to Ukraine as its rival Iran increases military support for Russia, feeding into the deterioration of overall Russo-Israeli ties that could result in economic and political retaliation.

Northern Ireland

The U.K. government's decision to delay a regional election in Northern Ireland to March or April gives London more time to reach a compromise with Brussels on reforming the Northern Ireland protocol, but significant obstacles remain and a trade war is still possible.

Brazil

Left-wing candidate and former president Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva won Brazil's hotly contested presidential runoff with 50.9% of the vote — narrowly beating out incumbent right-wing candidate Bolsonaro.

ANALYSIS

EU:

Bloc Includes Croatia in Schengen Area, Blocks Romania and Bulgaria

The interior ministers of the European Union member states voted to include Croatia in the bloc's passport-free travel zone, the Schengen area, but Austria and the Netherlands blocked the accession of Romania and Bulgaria.

Why It Matters: Schengen area membership brings significant economic benefits to the member countries because the lack of border controls accelerates the movement of goods across borders. It also simplifies the movement of tourists and workers, as residents in the Schengen area do not need visas to move within it.

Argentina:

Protests Likely After Vice President Found Guilty of Corruption

Argentine Vice President and former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner was found guilty of fraud and sentenced to six year s in prison, as well as banned from holding public office.

Why It Matters: Kirchner currently has immunity as vice president and is likely to launch an appeal process (which could take year s), meaning she is unlikely to serve time in prison in the near term. However, mass protests are likely to occur in the capital of Buenos Aires and possibly in other major cities in the coming days, and the largest protests are likely to be launched by the pro-Kirchner Everybody's Front (Frente de Todos) coalition. Protests could include violent clashes between opposing protesters and between protesters and security forces.

Russia:

EU to Propose Investment Ban in Russia's Mining Sector in Next Sanctions Package

The European Commission for the first time proposed banning new investments in Russia's mining sector in the bloc's forthcoming ninth sanctions package on Russia since the war in Ukraine began.

Why It Matters: Targeting Russia's mineral extraction industries will put upward pressure on global metals prices and threaten a key source of Russian government revenue in the long run. The commission has previously avoided targeting Russia's mining sector specifically to avoid disrupting global supply chains and fueling inflation. The new sanctions will be the subject of intense negotiations and will likely include derogations for certain minerals, such as titanium, palladium and nickel, for which the European Union cannot quickly find alternative supplier s because of Russia's dominant position in the mar ket.

Peru:

President Dissolves Congress, Congress Votes to Impeach President

The Peruvian armed forces have declared that they oppose President Pedro Castillo's Dec. 7 call for the temporary dissolution of Congress in a bid to convene a new Congress in addition to other stipulations including rule by decree until new congressional elections occur, a restructuring of the judiciary and the establishment of a state of emergency.

Why It Matters: The armed forces will enforce Congress' impeachment of Castillo as opposed to Castillo's measures to rule by decree, signaling that Castillo is unlikely to continue as president. Instead, the more popular Vice President Dina Boluarte will likely become president, but could face political backlash for her association with Castillo. In another potential scenario, Boluarte could resign, which would lead Congress to take over until new presidential elections are called. Whatever the outcome, Per u will almost certainly face widespread disruptive demonstrations and extreme mar ket volatility in the coming weeks.

Japan:

Fighter Jets Arrive in Philippines as Part of Air Force Exchange

The Japanese Air Self Defense Force landed two F-15 fighter jets in the Philippines as part of an air force exchange program. The two countries are currently discussing a Visiting Forces Agreement, which would allow the Japanese Self Defense Force to use military bases in the Philippines.

Why It Matters: For Japan, this is a major milestone in repairing relations with formerly colonized nations and in gaining access to further military bases in the region. For the Philippines, this exchange is a step in opposition to Chinese security interests. As a result, China will likely offer economic incentives to entice the Philippines to rethink and minimize future security actions, for example by downsizing the upcoming Visiting Forces Agreement with Japan.

Congo:

M23 Rebels Ready to Withdraw From Occupied Areas

The M23 rebel group said it is ready to withdraw from occupied territory in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo in support of "regional efforts to bring long lasting peace."

Why It Matters: An M23 withdrawal would meet the Congolese government's preconditions for peace talks, so the move may open the door to such talks going forward. However, the Congolese government and the East African Community may still refuse to negotiate with M23 due to ongoing clashes with the group.

What A Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan Would Look Like

China's People's Liberation Army is assessed by many to be capable of militarily seizing Taiwan, depending on outside factors. However, the enterprise would likely come at a great cost.

What A Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan Would Look Like

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